Insights / us
PGR
The Progressive CorporationUS06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.72%
P05–P95 span
14.28%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+3.31%
Outer 90%
5/6(83%)
Middle 50%
5/6(83%)
Above median
5/6(83%)
Below median
1/6(17%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.13%P25: -2.25%P50: 0.72%P75: 2.93%P95: 7.15%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.