Insights / us
PGR
The Progressive CorporationUS06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.07%
P05–P95 span
20.97%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.58
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+4.97%
Outer 90%
6/7(86%)
Middle 50%
4/7(57%)
Above median
7/7(100%)
Below median
0/7(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.33%P25: -2.36%P50: -0.07%P75: 3.69%P95: 11.64%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 18.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.