Insights / us
PGR
The Progressive CorporationUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.71%
P05–P95 span
22.43%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.55
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+3.59%
Outer 90%
4/5(80%)
Middle 50%
1/5(20%)
Above median
5/5(100%)
Below median
0/5(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.16%P25: -1.97%P50: 0.71%P75: 2.72%P95: 10.27%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.