Insights / us
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.US06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.66%
P05–P95 span
12.73%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+5.47%
Outer 90%
7/7(100%)
Middle 50%
1/7(14%)
Above median
6/7(86%)
Below median
1/7(14%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.48%P25: 0.08%P50: 1.66%P75: 3.65%P95: 9.25%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.