Insights / us
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.US06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.51%
P05–P95 span
13.42%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+4.60%
Outer 90%
5/6(83%)
Middle 50%
1/6(17%)
Above median
6/6(100%)
Below median
0/6(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.20%P25: -2.18%P50: 0.51%P75: 2.86%P95: 7.22%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.