Insights / us
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.US05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.88%
P05–P95 span
13.31%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+2.74%
Outer 90%
6/8(75%)
Middle 50%
0/8(0%)
Above median
6/8(75%)
Below median
2/8(25%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.71%P25: -2.53%P50: -0.88%P75: 0.19%P95: 5.60%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.