Insights / us
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon CorporationUS05/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.34%
P05–P95 span
12.56%
Neighbors
22
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+4.43%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
1/8(13%)
Above median
8/8(100%)
Below median
0/8(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.18%P25: -2.03%P50: 0.34%P75: 2.57%P95: 6.37%
Computed at: 05/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.