Insights / us
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon CorporationUS05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.89%
P05–P95 span
11.06%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+5.14%
Outer 90%
4/7(57%)
Middle 50%
0/7(0%)
Above median
7/7(100%)
Below median
0/7(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.81%P25: -2.61%P50: -0.89%P75: 0.70%P95: 5.25%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.