Insights / us
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon CorporationUS05/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.25%
P05–P95 span
13.04%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+2.78%
Outer 90%
9/9(100%)
Middle 50%
7/9(78%)
Above median
6/9(67%)
Below median
3/9(33%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.13%P25: -1.70%P50: 0.25%P75: 2.30%P95: 5.91%
Computed at: 05/07/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.