AVB

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US05/18/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+2.22%

P05–P95 span

15.51%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.69

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

-0.76%

Outer 90%

10/10(100%)

Middle 50%

5/10(50%)

Above median

1/10(10%)

Below median

9/10(90%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -3.60%P25: 0.33%P50: 2.22%P75: 4.86%P95: 11.92%

Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.7 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.