Insights / us
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.40%
P05–P95 span
11.63%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.16%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.70%P25: -2.22%P50: -0.40%P75: 1.65%P95: 5.93%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.