034730

SKKR05/11/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+6.61%
P05–P95 span
27.06%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.46
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+18.06%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -9.40%P25: 0.99%P50: 6.61%P75: 10.27%P95: 17.66%

Computed at: 05/11/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.8 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.