Insights / kr
034730
SKKR05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.21%
P05–P95 span
23.03%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.54
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+25.52%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -14.97%P25: -3.93%P50: -2.21%P75: 0.23%P95: 8.06%
Computed at: 05/12/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 5.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.