000810

삼성화재KR05/19/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+1.34%
P05–P95 span
22.29%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.55
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+22.79%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.12%P25: -1.44%P50: 1.34%P75: 6.05%P95: 17.17%

Computed at: 05/19/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 15.8 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.