Insights / kr
000810
삼성화재KR05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.76%
P05–P95 span
16.09%
Neighbors
7
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+28.98%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.44%P25: -1.58%P50: -0.76%P75: 3.55%P95: 12.64%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 7.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.