Insights / us
USB
U.S. BancorpUS06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.91%
P05–P95 span
11.47%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+8.02%
Outer 90%
6/7(86%)
Middle 50%
2/7(29%)
Above median
6/7(86%)
Below median
1/7(14%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.69%P25: 1.04%P50: 2.91%P75: 4.71%P95: 9.78%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.