Insights / us
USB
U.S. BancorpUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.65%
P05–P95 span
11.19%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+6.96%
Outer 90%
6/8(75%)
Middle 50%
0/8(0%)
Above median
7/8(88%)
Below median
1/8(13%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.60%P25: -2.84%P50: -0.65%P75: 1.50%P95: 5.59%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 26.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.