Insights / us
USB
U.S. BancorpUS04/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.18%
P05–P95 span
6.56%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.87
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.05%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.42%P25: 0.17%P50: 1.18%P75: 2.63%P95: 5.14%
Computed at: 04/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 18.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.