Insights / us
USB
U.S. BancorpUS04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.82%
P05–P95 span
11.79%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.15%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.28%P25: 0.06%P50: 1.82%P75: 3.71%P95: 7.51%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 37.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.