Insights / us
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.US06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.05%
P05–P95 span
32.28%
Neighbors
22
Sharpness
0.35
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
-0.17%
Outer 90%
5/6(83%)
Middle 50%
4/6(67%)
Above median
2/6(33%)
Below median
4/6(67%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.03%P25: -2.52%P50: -0.05%P75: 2.09%P95: 25.25%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.