Insights / us
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.US06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.42%
P05–P95 span
13.39%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
-0.58%
Outer 90%
6/7(86%)
Middle 50%
5/7(71%)
Above median
1/7(14%)
Below median
6/7(86%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.69%P25: -1.74%P50: 0.42%P75: 3.86%P95: 7.71%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 39.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.