Insights / us
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.US05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.07%
P05–P95 span
15.61%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+10.37%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.23%P25: -1.62%P50: 0.07%P75: 1.84%P95: 7.38%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.