Insights / us
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.82%
P05–P95 span
7.41%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.85
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.95%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.38%P25: -0.33%P50: 1.82%P75: 3.30%P95: 5.03%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.