Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.35%
P05–P95 span
14.64%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+13.91%
Outer 90%
5/8(63%)
Middle 50%
4/8(50%)
Above median
3/8(38%)
Below median
5/8(63%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.35%P25: -2.66%P50: -0.35%P75: 3.73%P95: 7.29%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 10.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.