Insights / us
SJM
The J. M. Smucker CompanyUS05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.48%
P05–P95 span
10.06%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+11.73%
Outer 90%
4/9(44%)
Middle 50%
0/9(0%)
Above median
3/9(33%)
Below median
6/9(67%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.42%P25: -0.88%P50: 0.48%P75: 2.22%P95: 5.64%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.