Insights / us
PKG
Packaging Corporation of AmericaUS04/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.81%
P05–P95 span
10.33%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.14%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.45%P25: -0.97%P50: 0.81%P75: 3.00%P95: 6.88%
Computed at: 04/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.