Insights / us
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.US05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.13%
P05–P95 span
14.79%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+4.31%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
7/8(88%)
Above median
7/8(88%)
Below median
1/8(13%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.23%P25: -1.21%P50: 1.13%P75: 4.95%P95: 9.56%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 16.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.