Insights / us
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.US05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.00%
P05–P95 span
18.29%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.63
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
-5.64%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
2/8(25%)
Above median
4/8(50%)
Below median
4/8(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.73%P25: -2.76%P50: -1.00%P75: 0.71%P95: 5.56%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.