Insights / us
MTCH
Match Group, Inc.US05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.04%
P05–P95 span
13.36%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.66%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.83%P25: -2.60%P50: -1.04%P75: 1.33%P95: 7.53%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.