Insights / us
MSCI
MSCI Inc.US04/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.02%
P05–P95 span
23.23%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.54
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+8.80%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -17.77%P25: -5.95%P50: -2.02%P75: 0.53%P95: 5.46%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 36.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.