Insights / us
MSCI
MSCI Inc.US04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.10%
P05–P95 span
10.64%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.90%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.67%P25: -1.56%P50: -0.10%P75: 1.47%P95: 5.97%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 26.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.