Insights / us
LLY
Eli Lilly and CompanyUS05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.72%
P05–P95 span
12.07%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.35%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.09%P25: -1.40%P50: 0.72%P75: 2.86%P95: 6.99%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.