Insights / us
LLY
Eli Lilly and CompanyUS05/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.14%
P05–P95 span
11.91%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.47%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.75%P25: -2.68%P50: -0.14%P75: 1.32%P95: 5.16%
Computed at: 05/15/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.