Insights / us
IBM
International Business Machines CorporationUS06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.38%
P05–P95 span
9.16%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
-12.40%
Outer 90%
0/7(0%)
Middle 50%
0/7(0%)
Above median
0/7(0%)
Below median
7/7(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.59%P25: -0.15%P50: 1.38%P75: 3.74%P95: 6.57%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.