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IBM
International Business Machines CorporationUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.52%
P05–P95 span
10.05%
Neighbors
15
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
-14.79%
Outer 90%
1/8(13%)
Middle 50%
0/8(0%)
Above median
1/8(13%)
Below median
7/8(88%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.28%P25: -1.05%P50: 0.52%P75: 2.45%P95: 4.77%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 14.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.