Insights / us
EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc.US05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.32%
P05–P95 span
23.04%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.54
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.18%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.75%P25: -0.51%P50: 1.32%P75: 3.41%P95: 18.28%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.