Insights / us
ERIE
Erie Indemnity CompanyUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.20%
P05–P95 span
9.52%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+6.54%
Outer 90%
2/5(40%)
Middle 50%
0/5(0%)
Above median
5/5(100%)
Below median
0/5(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.88%P25: -0.02%P50: 2.20%P75: 4.20%P95: 7.65%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.