Insights / us
ERIE
Erie Indemnity CompanyUS06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.84%
P05–P95 span
19.06%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+8.93%
Outer 90%
6/6(100%)
Middle 50%
0/6(0%)
Above median
6/6(100%)
Below median
0/6(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.23%P25: 0.16%P50: 1.84%P75: 4.63%P95: 15.84%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.