Insights / us
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.US04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.15%
P05–P95 span
25.88%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.48
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.01%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.72%P25: -2.70%P50: -0.15%P75: 2.12%P95: 14.16%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 29.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.