Insights / us
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.US04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.04%
P05–P95 span
10.42%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.87%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.63%P25: -0.92%P50: 1.04%P75: 2.68%P95: 5.79%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.