Insights / us
CCL
Carnival Corporation & plcUS06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+5.78%
P05–P95 span
16.44%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+2.63%
Outer 90%
4/7(57%)
Middle 50%
2/7(29%)
Above median
0/7(0%)
Below median
7/7(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.52%P25: 1.37%P50: 5.78%P75: 8.84%P95: 13.93%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.