Insights / us
CCL
Carnival Corporation & plcUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.36%
P05–P95 span
10.96%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+2.22%
Outer 90%
7/8(88%)
Middle 50%
4/8(50%)
Above median
2/8(25%)
Below median
6/8(75%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.26%P25: 0.06%P50: 1.36%P75: 2.97%P95: 5.70%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.