AXP

American Express CompanyUS06/07/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+0.60%
P05–P95 span
14.17%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
3 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+3
+2.74%
Outer 90%
3/3(100%)
Middle 50%
1/3(33%)
Above median
2/3(67%)
Below median
1/3(33%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.46%P25: -1.13%P50: 0.60%P75: 3.00%P95: 8.71%

Computed at: 06/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.7 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.