Insights / us
AXP
American Express CompanyUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.24%
P05–P95 span
11.26%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
+1.46%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
3/4(75%)
Above median
2/4(50%)
Below median
2/4(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.39%P25: -1.93%P50: -0.24%P75: 1.70%P95: 5.87%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.