Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.85%
P05–P95 span
11.33%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
+16.69%
Outer 90%
2/6(33%)
Middle 50%
0/6(0%)
Above median
5/6(83%)
Below median
1/6(17%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.92%P25: -0.43%P50: 0.85%P75: 2.91%P95: 8.41%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 8.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.