Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.86%
P05–P95 span
12.94%
Neighbors
7
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+13.97%
Outer 90%
6/7(86%)
Middle 50%
3/7(43%)
Above median
4/7(57%)
Below median
3/7(43%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.66%P25: 0.00%P50: 1.86%P75: 4.95%P95: 8.28%
Computed at: 05/31/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 6.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.