Insights / kr
012630
HDCKR06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+3.00%
P05–P95 span
12.25%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+4.70%
Outer 90%
3/7(43%)
Middle 50%
1/7(14%)
Above median
2/7(29%)
Below median
5/7(71%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.65%P25: 0.31%P50: 3.00%P75: 4.95%P95: 10.60%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 4.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.