Insights / kr
012630
HDCKR05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.25%
P05–P95 span
13.21%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
-4.30%
Outer 90%
3/8(38%)
Middle 50%
0/8(0%)
Above median
0/8(0%)
Below median
8/8(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.25%P25: -1.17%P50: 1.25%P75: 4.00%P95: 6.96%
Computed at: 05/31/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 16.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.