Insights / kr
011200
HMMKR06/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.69%
P05–P95 span
28.07%
Neighbors
13
Sharpness
0.44
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
1 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+1
+0.00%
Outer 90%
1/1(100%)
Middle 50%
0/1(0%)
Above median
1/1(100%)
Below median
0/1(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.28%P25: -7.47%P50: -2.69%P75: 0.00%P95: 14.80%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 12.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.