Insights / kr
011200
HMMKR06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.00%
P05–P95 span
16.00%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+1.18%
Outer 90%
2/2(100%)
Middle 50%
1/2(50%)
Above median
2/2(100%)
Below median
0/2(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.05%P25: -2.01%P50: 0.00%P75: 2.84%P95: 9.95%
Computed at: 06/08/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 15.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.